Poverty and Paradise

Critically exploring issues of governance, development and poverty reduction in the Pacific Islands

What’s wrong with Hugh White’s aid skepticism?

Yesterday Hugh White blogged that “slowing the growth of [AusAID’s budget] would be no bad thing.” He cited a number of reasons, giving as his most immediate the idea that:

it is so hard to avoid wasting a lot of money when the amounts available are growing so fast. This is no discredit to AusAID, which is one of the world’s better aid agencies. Their work is not just about signing cheques: they have to work with other countries and local communities to develop cost-effective projects that deliver real results. That takes a long time, so the faster money has to be spent, the more will be wasted. That does nothing to help the needy.

This may be true but Hugh’s immediate reasoning is nevertheless flawed, because there is no onus on AusAID to be the sole deliverer of Australian aid. Already it partners with a range of established and respected international organisations to deliver aid in areas where it lacks capacity, reach or expertise. Thus in 2009-10 $466 million of its budget was delivered by the World Bank, $131.6 million by the Asian Development Bank, $154 million by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation; the Education for All Fast Track Initiative, and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. At present over 30% of Australian aid is delivered through partner organisations such as these, so - counter to Hugh’s suggestion - quite a large amount of AusAID’s work is actually signing cheques. 

AusAID may immediately lack the capacity to deliver an augmented aid budget, but I see no reason why its partner organisations would not be willing and able to lend a hand for a few years. With government aid generosity on a sharp decline, many of these organisations (and the Global Fund in particular) will be experiencing a surplus of capacity that AusAID is increasingly well-placed to meet. 

By 2005, Rwanda was able to lower its HIV prevalence to 3.1 percent  a two percent decrease in just two years. A health care worker points to a chart showing the falling HIV prevalence rate at Kabuga Health Care Centre, Rwanda. Photo borrowed from the Gates Foundation's (which sponsors the Global Fund) flickr, which

Banking on Change

Jim Yong Kim looks slated to head the World Bank come June, and I’m hoping to wrap my head around the rationale of his nomination before then. 

As Lant Pritchett has amply demonstrated, the sole qualification Kim ostensibly possesses over rival Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (or Jose Antonio Ocampo, for that matter) is his passport. It seems odd, to say the least, that Kim was selected after Ocampo and Okonjo-Iweala’s names were put forward, for surely there is no shortage of qualified experts with experience in financial development in the US. Kim’s professional achievements, academic credentials and experience as a development practitioner are no doubt extensive and admirable, but it’s hard to get past the fact that that a man with no finance training should be spectacularly unqualified to head any Bank, let alone the World Bank.  Presumably a doctor is about as well placed to approve lending and decided macroeconomic courses of action as an economist is to direct open heart surgery; hence the outrage that the former looks slated to head the World’s leading development and lending institution over qualified economists who have actually served as finance ministers of developing countries. That’s the line Pritchett, Blattman and many others are upholding, and it’s not without its merits.

That said, neither is Kim’s nomination.

Those who rightfully contest axiomatic American leadership of the Bank have been quick to lament Kim’s pending appointment as just more of the same. But while Kim may share citizenship rights with his predecessors, in a number of arguably more important ways his nomination represents quite a radical break with the past. As Acemoglu and Robinson point out (and I’ve added a few of my own points here), Kim is:

a)     not a career civil servant like Zoellick, whose leadership was discredited by his association with American trade interests

b)    not an “ex-warmonger” like Robert McNamara, whose role in escalating US involvement in Vietnam did little to ingratiate him with developing country leaders

c)     not a banker like James Wolfensohn, or (more persuasively) like prospective nominee Larry Summers, whose role in the GFC would also discredit his leadership

d)    not a member of an entrenched US political family like Hillary Clinton, whose career and future is so inextricably bound with US domestic political office that developing countries would be hard-pressed to see her leadership as apolitical

e)     not a newbie to development like Indra Nooyi, who nevertheless may well have been an excellent WB head

f)     not bound to fall out with the BRICS like Susan Rice, who’s set out her position on intervention in both Libya and Syria in pretty unequivocal terms.

Add to this the fact that Kim is g) an anthropologist and h) a physician who’s i) on record as a critic of economic inequality and the assumptions that growth leads unswervingly to poverty reduction, and it seems a fairly safe bet that his leadership will result in serious change in the ideological leadership the World Bank has hitherto provided. It’s hard to imagine a person of his philosophical bent and experience peddling anything other than a highly anthropocentric approach to development. 

Jim Kim may have no finance training or experience, but he also has no ties with Wall Street, no association with US militarism and no enduring involvement in US politics. He may be a step down from a non-American World Bank head, but if we’re being realistic about de-linking WB leadership from American economic interests and institutional thinking his nomination may well be the next best thing.

Carbon Infographics

Kiln has produced a fantastic interactive infographic for climate change data, where you click on a subject and watch the map morph to reflect each country’s relative wealth, emissions, extraction, vulnerability etc. Easier on the eyes than tables, though sadly the Pacific Islands (minus PNG) seem to be missing.

Image via Flickr user Lunae Parracho

Image via Flickr user Lunae Parracho

1 year ago

“Are Chinese soft loans always a bad thing?”

Graeme Smith’s blog on The Interpreter today was so good it’s worth reprinting in full: 

When the nationwide anti-Asian riots of May 2009 reached the Highlands of Papua New Guinea, the targets were the same as those of earlier riots in Port Moresby and in Lae. Shops run by newly arrived migrants from the Fujian province of China were burnt and looted. Police responded with volleys of tear gas in West Goroka.

Beyond the barbed wire-encased stores and kai bars, Goroka was home to another Chinese population. Over a hundred workers were erecting a seven-storey dormitory at the University of Goroka (the white building in the background; photo by the author).

Tipped off by the Fujianese shopkeepers, the Chinese builders told university staff that a mob was on the way, and they were spirited into the university library. When word spread, a throng of students was waiting for the looters at the university entrance, informing them in non-academic language that no one was going to touch their Chinese, who were building their dormitory. To my knowledge, this was the first instance of a pro-Chinese demonstration in the Pacific.

With Chinese retail investment providing fuel for nationwide riots, Chinese mining investment characterised as ‘neo-colonial slavery’, and the Lowy Institute maintaining criticism of China’s Pacific aid program, why is the Goroka project different, and what implications does this hold for Australia?

The first possibility is that the company involved in this project, Guangdong Foreign Construction (GDFC), is a better corporate citizen. But this does not seem to be the case. Before winning the contract in Goroka, GDFC built student dormitories and teachers’ houses in Rabaul, at the University of Vudal. This project, supported by a Chinese Government grant, became notorious when staff and students from all over PNG were housed there for the 2008 Intervarsity Games. They saw flaking paint, cracked ceilings and shoddy fittings. It was Chinese aid and construction at its worst, down to the bright red roof.

And yet GDFC won the tender for Goroka’s dormitories. At the time, university staff and the Department of National Planning were opposed to GDFC’s involvement, but in retrospect, GDFC’s selection is seen as a godsend. Soon after starting work, GDFC management took university administrators out to dinner at a Seventh Day Adventist restaurant, and proposed a Chinese government concessional loan to build more dormitories. As one dinner guest explained, ‘they needed the work; we needed the money.’

In a similar spirit of frank discussion, I put forward a couple of heretical theses:

  • Soft loans, even Chinese ones, aren’t always bad things.
  • Chinese ‘aid’ is often a bottom-up rather than a top-down process.

‘Aid’ earns scare quotes because no one can agree whether a loan charged at two percent interest is aid. The Department of Foreign Affairs and Immigration sees it as a commercial deal, and has delayed the issuing of visas. The National Executive Council, which awarded tax and visa exemptions, sees it as aid. GDFC sees it as grant aid, arguing that the loan will be forgiven. In the Memorandum of Agreement between GDFC and the university, it is awkwardly referred to as ‘a kind of China-aid project.’

Whether it is a grant or a loan affects local control and ownership. With a grant, local partners have little leverage. As a University administrator explained, ‘(t)he difference is that this is a loan. Even if it is a soft loan, we’re still going to pay them back. So it’s really the government of PNG paying for it. We’re in total control of it.’

My thesis that Chinese infrastructure companies in the Pacific, not aid agencies in Beijing, are driving aid requires more substantiation. Yet for those with even a passing familiarity with China’s polity, it is a no-brainer. The Chinese central government lacks full agency and control within its own borders; why would it enjoy it outside of them?

This lack of control can lead to better outcomes for Pacific nations. In the case of the dormitory project, the tail wagged the dog. GDFC successfully lobbied Exim Bank in Shanghai. The contractor, rather than the lending agency, penned the initial loan agreement. Remarkably, the university and the lead architect in PNG were able to push back, persuading Exim Bank to accept their terms for the design and supervision of the project, because they were competitive on price, and arrived at the negotiating table with plans and standards to hand.

This successful push-back by the university shows how Australian agencies such as DFAT, AusAID and Treasury can make a positive difference to the Pacific’s reception of foreign aid. China has the finance to build the infrastructure the Pacific needs, and there are Chinese infrastructure companies that need the work. Demonizing such loans or encouraging Pacific leaders to ‘just say no’ is foolish. Naïve even.

A more useful approach would be to assist Pacific partners to reduce the asymmetry of power when loans are being negotiated, coordinate with Chinese infrastructure companies based in the Pacific, and perhaps even revisit the idea of trilateral cooperation in aid projects. Hopefully, with a new foreign minister, we’ll move beyond Manichaean concerns about whether China is a force for ‘good’ in the Pacific, and not miss the chance to help Chinese investment benefit the people of our region.

Why is Graeme’s post a step in the right direction? 

For a start, the field for Pacific Islands research is much smaller than that for Africa (and China has been substantively influential in the former for a much shorter period). We’re unsurprisingly yet to see the same depth of critical China commentary that’s emerged in force in the China-Africa literature to question the portrayal of Chinese assistance as axiomatically colonial and harmful, and this is hardly helpful when it comes to engineering constructive and forward-looking policy. Anything that broadens perceptions (or evolves the discourse beyond a single story of Chinese aid) is a good start. 

That said, it’s worth noting that an evolving critical discourse on the value of Chinese-African engagement is still yet to make the transition to mainstream media. Even the Guardian still loves to unreflectively bandy about the neocolonial label, proving high-mindedness makes no newspaper immune to the reality that hysteria sells more papers than nuance. The problematic result is that Western statesmen (and women) are following an antagonistic lead; a situation helping literally no one. 

It’s for these reasons that I’m hopeful Graeme’s blog post pricks the local media’s interest. His published research will no doubt lift the bar in an academic sense, but few journos are likely to peruse what remain relatively inaccessible journals. Blogging is (in my view at least) a far more effective place to translate informed opinion into replicable common sense as a basis for constructive policy, and the value of this shouldn’t be underestimated. A Pacific where donors understand each other and collaborate is infinitely preferable to one where donors only misunderstand each other and throw mud. 

Post-script: Deborah Brautigam has picked up Graeme’s blog and issued a concise review of it that’s definitely worth reading. Also (and I should eat my words about academic inaccessibility here!) The Journal of Pacific History has made the article on which Graeme’s blog is based free to view for a limited period - check it out here

Recent reads:

  • Could vocational training avert future violence in Bougainville? 

Following pages available here.

Following pages available here.

Why Pacific anti-DV campaigns shouldn't only be targeted at men

1 year ago

sunfoundation:

Mapping makes it easier to identify links between climate change, conflict, and aid

Since last year, AidData has been working with the Robert S. Strauss Center’s Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS) program at the University of Texas on a new mapping tool that is now available online (http://ccaps.aiddata.org).  The goal of the project is to shed light on the links between three major forces that play a role in shaping development in a number of countries in Africa: climate change, conflict, and development assistance.  Parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, southern Somalia, and South Sudan, for example, are particularly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change. CCAPS researchers are investigating the interplay of climate-related hazards and incidents of violent conflict, and the way conflict dynamics are changing over time and space.

(via theatlantic)

On my reading list:

Dame Carol Kidu’s recent ANU lecture on PNG Women in the 21st century.

Transcript here; commentary here

Rarotonga ♥

Rarotonga 

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